Key findings from NRF 2012

I spent the first half of this week at the National Retail Federation’s BIG show, in New York City. About 25,000 people were in attendance, including representatives from most major retailers and companies trying to sell solutions to these retailers. I managed to attend a few presentations, including a keynote by Bill Clinton, and culled some interesting points:

  • 90% of buyers would use buy-online & pick-up-in-store later, if available, says @NCR
    I’m not sure if “buyers” is an important distinction vs. shoppers.
  • 95% of all retailers have only a single store, says @EliseDG90
    I wonder what percentage of retail stores are part of a single location retailer though
  • 90% of people trust brand recommendations from friends, says @HubSpot
    … which explains why people are optimistic about social shopping. Interestingly, a number of other presenters suggested shopping was only a semi-social activity (vs. shopping at the mall today with friends) because you all have separate screens, even if you share some limited information
  • Mashable reported that consumers don’t like to shop on branded apps, and instead shop online. I’m not sure where applications like RedLaser fall here, however–it isn’t a branded app (like Walmart’s app), but it certainly isn’t browser based shopping either.
  • PayPal’s Sebastian Taveau (@frogtwitt) noted that 25% of shoppers searched for retailer information , 10% compare prices and review … but 78% actually buy online. How can we get consumers doing more research online? How much of this is because people go directly to destinations sites (like Amazon)?

Why freemium’s only going to get more common

Localytics, via Techcrunch

Evernote blog, via Markitecture

These two charts, taken together, are what have me convinced that freemium is going to be the dominant business model for any serious application in the future.

What these charts tell me:

  1. Mobile applications either win or lose; users try lots of apps, decide which they like, and then use those few heavily
  2. Users are willing to pay for apps they use heavily

The key, then, is how to convert users into heavy users, and thus convince them to pay. Evernote, Dropbox, Pandora, and others find the freemium model well-suited to this–get lots of free-users, offer a compelling product, and convine the heaviest users to shoulder the majority of the cost.

There are other options. Microsoft and Adobe are able to jump immediately into a relationship via their reputation and business lock-in. But I suspect the days of such uniformity are drawing to an end. Google Docs, Evernote, and a whole suite of applications threaten the Office lock-in. Adobe and PDFs, another must-have software set, is also on the decline.

I can imagine the freemium model expanding to other industries. Amazon’s announcement of free book rentals is an interesting stab at a physical-world freemium program–users still need to buy (subsidized) Kindles, but it seems like their goal is to lower the trial costs as much as possible, and encourage the heaviest users to come in with gusto.

There’s real money to be made in figuring out how to apply this pay-gradation to other industries. I could imagine it would be effective in video, in particular.